Bachmann wins Ames straw poll
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann won a test vote of Iowans on Saturday, a show of strength five months before the state's caucuses kick off the GOP presidential nominating season.Out of 16,892 votes cast, Bachmann took 4,823 votes, just ahead of Ron Paul's 4,671. Tim Pawlenty, who essentially went all in on the straw poll to change the narrative of his struggling campaign, got just 2,293 votes, less than half of his fellow Minnesota lawmaker.
'Congratulations to Congresswoman Michele Bachmann for her victory in today's straw poll,' Pawlenty said after the announcement. 'We made progress in moving from the back of the pack into a competitive position for the caucuses, but we have a lot more work to do. This is a long process to restore America -- we are just beginning and I'm looking forward to a great campaign.'
Rather, Saturday's outcome suggests that Bachmann has a certain level of support and, perhaps even more important, the strongest get-out-the-vote operation and widest volunteer base in a state whose caucuses require those elements.
The straw poll was even more crucial for Pawlenty, for whom it marked perhaps the last, best chance to turn around what has so far been a disappointing campaign. Pawlenty was expected to be perhaps Romney's strongest challenger for the nomination, but his campaign failed to catch fire, with his support never moving out of the single digits.
Pawlenty bussed in supporters who signed a pledge to vote for him, offering them free "Famous Dave's" barbecue and green Pawlenty t-shirts with the number 12 on the back. In a speech here, he condemned President Obama as having "no clue" what America needs and saying he needs to "get the government off our backs."
The result in Ames, Iowa, is the first indication of what Iowans think of the field of Republicans competing for the chance to challenge President Barack Obama next fall. But it's hardly predictive of who will win the winter Iowa contest, much less the party nod or the White House.
Rather, Saturday's outcome suggests that Bachmann has a certain level of support and, perhaps even more important, the strongest get-out-the-vote operation and widest volunteer base in a state whose caucuses require those elements.
The straw poll was even more crucial for Pawlenty, for whom it marked perhaps the last, best chance to turn around what has so far been a disappointing campaign. Pawlenty was expected to be perhaps Romney's strongest challenger for the nomination, but his campaign failed to catch fire, with his support never moving out of the single digits.
Pawlenty bussed in supporters who signed a pledge to vote for him, offering them free "Famous Dave's" barbecue and green Pawlenty t-shirts with the number 12 on the back. In a speech here, he condemned President Obama as having "no clue" what America needs and saying he needs to "get the government off our backs."
Bachmann, riding high since entering the race earlier this summer, had hoped that a strong finish would give her even more momentum just as Perry looks to infringe on her base of tea party and evangelical support.
She invoked God and faith as she stressed what she called her conservative values, saying: 'In Iowa, we are social conservatives and we will never be ashamed of being social conservatives.'
Pawlenty also had a lot on the line. He's ranked low in polls and was looking to prove he was still a viable candidate. He argued that he was the candidate of results, given his record as Minnesota governor. Trying to control expectations, he had predicted the poll would show his campaign's momentum. He did not promise his supporters a win.
The straw poll isn't a scientific poll at all; it amounts to a popularity contest and a test of organizational strength.
Poor showings usually force some candidates, mostly those who are not well-known and are struggling to raise money, to abandon their bids. That could happen this year, too.
The straw poll has a mixed record of predicting the outcome of the precinct caucuses.
In 2008, Romney won the straw poll, but the big news was the surprising second-place showing of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses, but dropped from the race soon after. Sen. John McCain, who eventually won the nomination, didn't compete in the straw poll and finished in 10th place.
Pawlenty, languishing in early Iowa polls, hoped a victory would prove he's a strong player in the race. Bachmann wanted to build on momentum she's enjoyed since entering the race this summer.
'For some people, this is make or break,' tea party activist Ryan Rhodes said.
Nine candidates were on the ballot. Voting was to run for six hours during the day-long political festival on the campus of Iowa State University.
Romney won the straw poll four years ago but isn't actively competing this time, and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who has bypassed Iowa almost entirely, weren't scheduled to be in the state. Both spent Friday in New Hampshire.
Perry and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who made a splash on Friday when she visited the state fair, weren't on the ballot. But their supporters planned write-in campaigns that could outpace candidates who have spent months trying to line up supporters to participate.
Santorum urged his supporters to defy expectations.
'We will do something that no reporter in this town thinks can happen,' he said. 'We can win this thing.'
Across the parking lots, Paul referenced his fellow Texan's entrance in the race and said he didn't anticipate many of his supporters jumping ship for what he called a 'super-establishment candidate.'
And Pawlenty, trying to control expectations, predicted the results would show 'momentum.' He did not promise his supporters a win.
'Part of it is whether the message resonates, but the bottom line is you better be pretty well organised,' Iowa Christian Alliance head Steve Scheffler said.
The straw poll has a mixed record of predicting the outcome of the precinct caucuses.
In 2008, Romney won the straw poll, but the big news was the surprising second-place showing of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses, but dropped from the race soon after. McCain, who eventually won the nomination, didn't compete in the straw poll and finished in 10th place.
GOP strategist Rich Galen called it 'a winnowing process and that might happen to Pawlenty if he doesn't do well. It sort of serves as a filter to clean out the candidates who probably shouldn't be there in the first place.'
Not to be out-done, Sarah Palin arrived at the Iowa state fair yesterday and let everyone know she's still alive by promptly stealing the spotlight.
The former Alaska governor sparked a new round of speculation about her plans for 2012 after playing the star of the show in Des Moines, leaving the party's presidential contenders in the shade.
WHAT IS AT STAKE IN THE AMES STRAW POLL
The Ames Straw Poll is a presidential straw poll taken by Iowa Republicans, occurring in Ames, Iowa during election cycles.
To the state party chairman, Matt Strawn, the poll 'is the first measurable proving ground' for the field.
The poll results are non-binding, amounting to a popularity contest, and offer candidates a chance to test their get-out-the-vote organisations.
Nonetheless, the outcome is thought to provide a road map for the Iowa campaign heading into the caucuses that are just four months away.
Those willing to shell out $30 for a ticket were eligible to vote today, though some campaigns paid for tickets they distributed to backers. Some also organised bus caravans to bring backers to the event, where voting ran for six hours during a day-long political festival on the campus of Iowa State University.
Turnout in the past has ranged from 14,000 to 23,000.
Nine candidates were on the ballot this year, including: Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Thaddeus McCotter, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum competed for votes today in Iowa.
To the state party chairman, Matt Strawn, the poll 'is the first measurable proving ground' for the field.
The poll results are non-binding, amounting to a popularity contest, and offer candidates a chance to test their get-out-the-vote organisations.
Nonetheless, the outcome is thought to provide a road map for the Iowa campaign heading into the caucuses that are just four months away.
Those willing to shell out $30 for a ticket were eligible to vote today, though some campaigns paid for tickets they distributed to backers. Some also organised bus caravans to bring backers to the event, where voting ran for six hours during a day-long political festival on the campus of Iowa State University.
Turnout in the past has ranged from 14,000 to 23,000.
Nine candidates were on the ballot this year, including: Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Thaddeus McCotter, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum competed for votes today in Iowa.
Mrs Palin, who stopped to talk to reporters and fans outside the barn, said she was still uncertain of her decision, but there was time and room for more candidates to run.
She said: 'I think there is plenty of time to jump in the race.
'Watching the whole process over the last year certainly shows me that, yes, there is plenty of room for more people.'
She said that 'practically speaking' September would probably be a deadline for her decision.
'I don't want to be perceived as stringing people along,' she said.
Mrs Palin joined a half-dozen declared Republican presidential candidates who visited the fair on Friday to speak at a local newspaper's stage, make a traditional visit to a life-size sculpted butter cow and eat fried Oreo cookies or meats on a stick.
The fair visit is a traditional rite of passage for presidential contenders, and Mrs Palin's timing Friday stole the spotlight from potential rivals, including former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann, Reuters reports.
Mrs Palin, the 2008 vice presidential nominee, denied that was her intention.
'I don't think I'm stealing any spotlights,' she said.
Rumours about Mrs Palin's entry into the race had slowed after she ended a bus tour of several states in early June.
As the 2012 race heated up, speculation focused on other new entries, like Texas Governor Rick Perry who is expected to declare his candidacy on Saturday.
Dressed in black jeans and a white t-shirt with a cartoon stick figure woman and hearts on the front, Mrs Palin posed for photos with fans, signed autographs and petted a calf that was led to her through the media mob.
Her toenails were painted black with white polka dots.
She dismissed suggestions that if she gets into the race she is on a collision course with Mrs Bachmann, another outspoken and flashy conservative woman who is popular with members of the Tea Party movement and attracts heavy media attention.
'That's ridiculous, it's even a sexist notion that two women would duke it out.
'If I'm going to duke it out I'm going to duke it out with guys,' she said.